A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
